Why Modi Really Skipped the ASEAN Summit — And What It Means for India’s Global Game

Modi skips ASEAN Summit: the real reason revealed

When Narendra Modi, India’s charismatic Prime Minister, opts not to travel for a major regional summit, the world takes notice. At the 47th Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Summit taking place in Kuala Lumpur from 26-28 October 2025, Modi announced he would participate virtually, rather than attending in person.

What’s behind this decision? On the surface, the timing of India’s biggest festival, Diwali (Deepavali), is given as the reason. But beneath that lie deeper geopolitical and domestic dynamics: the fraught India-U.S. trade relationship, energy diplomacy (especially around Russian oil), India’s “Act East” strategy, and the optics of international presence.

In this blog, we’ll unpack why Modi chose to go virtual, explore the implications for India’s foreign policy, and analyse what this means for the region and for India’s global posture. With trending search volumes and global interest, this topic is ripe for deep analysis — and I’ll walk you through every angle.

Section 1: The Official Explanation – Diwali & Domestic Commitments

The Indian government and Malaysian counterparts cite the Deepavali festival as a key reason for Modi’s virtual participation. Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim stated that Modi informed him of his virtual attendance because Deepavali celebrations were ongoing in India.

Additionally, scheduling conflicts were cited. Reports indicate that the prime minister had domestic commitments and that his planned visit to Malaysia and Cambodia was postponed.

On paper, this is a plausible and acceptable explanation: the significance of Deepavali in India’s social and political calendar is real, and high-level leaders often modify travel for key domestic observances.

Why this reason is credible:

• Deepavali is one of India’s biggest festivals, involving nationwide celebrations, government events, public addresses, and symbolic gestures.
• Leaders often avoid major travel during such festivals to remain connected with the domestic audience and to carry out responsibilities at home.
• By choosing a virtual presence, Modi retains engagement with the ASEAN-India dialogue while honoring domestic symbolism.

But this explanation leaves questions:

• Why a virtual presence rather than a delayed in-person meet?
• Why is this only the second time Modi has skipped such a summit in person since 2014?
• Given the summit’s significance for India’s ‘Act East’ policy, was domestic scheduling the only factor?

That leads us to deeper layers of strategy.

Section 2: Geopolitical Underpinnings — India, ASEAN and the U.S.

2.1 India-ASEAN Relations

India’s engagement with ASEAN has steadily risen over the past decades. Through the “Look East” policy evolved into “Act East” under Modi’s leadership, the relationship has become more strategic and multi-dimensional. Wikipedia

For India, ASEAN is not just a regional trading block—it’s a gateway to the Indo-Pacific, a partner on connectivity, security, investment and diplomacy. Skipping the in-person summit could thus signal something important.

2.2 The India-U.S. Trade Tension

One of the major backdrops here is the tense trade relationship between India and the Donald Trump administration of the U.S. According to reports, the U.S. imposed high tariffs (up to 50 %) on Indian goods amid concerns over India’s oil imports from Russia and trade practices.

Given that Trump was scheduled to attend the ASEAN Summit, speculation arose that Modi might use the gathering for direct bilateral talks. But with Modi opting for virtual participation, a face-to-face meeting with the U.S. president is unlikely.

2.3 Strategic Calculations

Here’s what may be happening behind the scenes:

• Avoiding an awkward optics or confrontation: In live forums, Trump frequently makes public statements, sometimes bold or contentious (e.g., about energy, Russia, India’s role). Meeting in person might risk compromising India’s narrative or being placed in a tougher spot. The Indian opposition (Indian National Congress) has alleged Modi is skipping precisely to avoid meeting Trump.
• Maintaining strategic autonomy: India has been importing Russian oil despite global pressure and U.S. sanctions. In such a climate, attending in person while another major power leader is present might constrain India’s negotiating flexibility.
• Domestic optics and timing: With India heading into state elections (such as Bihar) and with domestic focus on festivals and public presence, Modi may have judged that attending virtually allows for both global engagement and domestic focus.

Thus, the decision to go virtual appears to be a calculated blend of domestic scheduling and global positioning.

Section 3: Implications for India’s Foreign Policy

3.1 Symbolism vs Substance

When a world leader doesn’t show up in person, the message is often interpreted as reducing priority or signalling distance. For India, skipping previous such summits has been rare. By choosing virtual, Modi retains participation—but at what cost?

• Symbolic cost: A physical presence sends stronger signals of commitment. Virtual participation may be seen as less engaged.
• Substantive continuity: The summit will still proceed, India can still participate, make statements, sign agreements. So substance can be maintained.

3.2 India-ASEAN: Act East Strategy Under Scrutiny

Given that India has emphasised the importance of ASEAN, not showing a physical presence may raise questions among ASEAN members about India’s prioritisation. On the other hand, the virtual route may be acceptable given Modi’s strong record of summit attendance.

3.3 India-U.S. Relations: Trade, Energy, and Diplomacy

By not physically attending, Modi may avoid getting drawn into a bilateral spotlight with Trump—and thereby avoid potential public missteps. This allows India to buy time to negotiate its trade and energy stances without the pressure of summit optics.

3.4 Domestic Messaging

Domestically, participating virtually during Diwali helps Modi reinforce his connection to the Indian public—festival, home, cultural roots—while still engaging globally. This dual messaging may serve his broader political strategy.

Section 4: What’s At Stake – Key Areas to Watch

4.1 Trade Deal with the U.S.

Reports suggest a trade deal between India and the U.S. is nearing, potentially reducing tariffs to about 15-16 %. Modi’s absence in person may slow public optics of a big announcement, but negotiations will likely continue post summit.

4.2 Energy Diplomacy and Russia

India’s continued import of Russian oil remains a flashpoint in India-U.S. relations. Modi’s virtual attendance may indicate India’s intention to proceed with cautious diplomacy rather than being cornered into public commitments.

4.3 ASEAN-India Strategic Partnership

The 47th ASEAN Summit and the ASEAN-India component are important for regional connectivity (infrastructure, technology, defence). India missing in person may be noted—but not fatal. The real test will be announcements, MoUs, and follow-up.

4.4 Domestic Political Timing

With festivals and key local elections on the horizon, Modi may be prioritising domestic momentum. His presence at home during Deepavali and subsequent events could be deemed more strategic than physical attendance in Kuala Lumpur.

Section 5: Expert Interpretations & Opposition Commentary

The opposition has been vocal. For example, Congress leader Jairam Ramesh accused Modi of avoiding meeting Trump for fear of being “cornered”. This commentary highlights the political lens through which this move is being viewed domestically.

Some analysts note that Modi has skipped in-person attendance only once before since 2014, underscoring how unusual this is.

Others argue that a senior minister such as Subrahmanyam Jaishankar representing India still sends a signalling message of continuity and seriousness.

Ultimately, the move is being treated not simply as a schedule adjustment, but as an indication of India’s diplomatic balancing act.

Section 6: How Should India Communicate and Mitigate Any Damage?

To ensure this virtual attendance does not affect India’s standing, the following steps are key:

1. Strong video address & messaging: Modi should deliver a powerful virtual speech emphasising India’s commitment to ASEAN, highlighting concrete initiatives and future engagements.
2. High-impact announcements: Use the summit to roll out new infrastructure, trade, connectivity or defence commitments to show action despite the absence.
3. Bilateral meetings in parallel: Use side meetings (virtual or in person through other officials) to ensure contacts with other leaders (including the U.S., ASEAN states).
4. Media narrative management: Address the optics by stressing that Diwali and domestic responsibilities were combined with global outreach, showing a modern leader balancing home and abroad.
5. Follow-up visits: Plan for a later in-person visit to resolve any perceived gap. Communicate that virtual is a stop-gap, not a downgrade.

If managed well, the decision to participate virtually can be turned into a strength: demonstrating flexibility, modern diplomacy, and focus on delivery rather than just optics.

Section 7: The Broader Trend – Virtual Diplomacy in the Post-Pandemic Era

While this case has specific Indian context, it also reflects a broader trend: world leaders increasingly using virtual participation. While in-person summits carry unique value, virtual presence has become more accepted. India joining virtually does not necessarily imply reduced importance—it may reflect pragmatism.

Nevertheless, a caution: repeated virtual attendance may signal disengagement, so maintaining in-person presence for priority engagements remains important.

Section 8: Public & Media Perception – What to Watch

8.1 Domestic Media

Expect narratives such as:

• “Modi prioritises Diwali over diplomacy”
• “Diplomatic snub to ASEAN?”
• “Smart cut-through: India balances festival, politics and foreign policy”

8.2 International Media

Observers will highlight:

• India-U.S. trade tension and Modi’s avoidance of high-risk optics
• India’s shift from symbolic presence to strategic pragmatism
• ASEAN’s interpretation: India remains in the game, but is choosing its involvement carefully

8.3 Social Media & Public Sentiment

Social commentary may focus on symbolism (festival vs summit), scrutiny on missed face-to-face engagements, and speculation on hidden reasons.

As a blogger or content creator, tapping into these perceptions—in a balanced way—will help maximise engagement.

Section 9: What This Means for Future Engagements

Looking ahead:

• For future summits, India may calibrate physical presence based on priority, optics, and agenda rather than regime-norm attendance.
• This may give India flexibility, but also requires careful messaging to avoid perceived disengagement.
• India’s relationships with major powers (U.S., China) and regional blocs (ASEAN) will increasingly require nuanced presence.
• Virtual participation may become part of the toolkit—especially for domestic-heavy schedules—but will not replace physical diplomacy for high-stakes engagements.

Conclusion

In skipping the in-person attendance at the 47th ASEAN Summit and opting for virtual participation, PM Modi is pulling a calculated move. On the surface, it aligns with domestic commitments (Deepavali) and practical scheduling. Beneath that lies a layered diplomatic strategy: navigating complex India-U.S. trade dynamics, energy diplomacy, and regional priorities.

For India, the key will be in how the virtual participation is leveraged, and how follow-up actions are communicated and executed. If done well, this can reflect a mature foreign-policy approach: presence doesn’t always require physical travel—what matters is delivery, substance, and strategic clarity.

But India must ensure that this doesn’t become a pattern of absence. The world watches not just attendance, but the outcomes. For ASEAN partners, India’s commitment will be measured by action, not just appearance. For global players, India’s decision signals its growing desire to act on its own timetable, balancing multiple pressures.